Thursday, November 04, 2004

The 11 states.

I was having a conversation tonight with an Ohio voter living abroad. He claims that as soon as he saw the gay marriage amendment on the Ohio ballot, he thought the Bush people had pulled a brilliant move, and could very well go on to win the election. But he also said he thought the amendments were placed on the ballots in 11 key states, all states in which Bush would have to rally his base and get them to the polls.

I must admit I didn't pay much attention to which states had the amendment on the ballot. I knew about Arkansas because that's my home state, and somewhere I read about Oregon. But that's it. So the 11 states are: Mississippi, Arkansas, Oregon, Montana, Ohio, Utah, Kentucky, Michigan, North Dakota, Georgia and Oklahoma. And take note here, the amendment was not on the ballot in Florida or Pennsylvania.

It seems to me that Mississippi, Montana, Utah, Kentucky, North Dakota, Georgia and Oklahoma were never in play for Kerry anyhow. Of the four left Oregon and Michigan were leaning toward Kerry, but were still in play to some extent just as Arkansas leaned toward Bush with some hope that it might be the only southern state that could go blue. And then there's Ohio. I know that this is an issue that energized Bush's base, but I'm not sure I buy the argument that it was a concerted Republican Party effort to get gay marriage on the ballot in key states to help swing the election. Eight of the 11 states were already red.

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